All Things Jim Rogers » Jim Rogers October 2009

Jim Rogers Al Jazeera October 20, 2009

Admin — Tue, 03 Nov 2009 01:06:08 +0000

In his latest interview with Al Jazeera, Jim Rogers reminds everyone America is now competing with the rest of the world. I personally think we have become a bit cocky after sitting at the top for so long. Brazil and China are making great strides and although they are a couple steps behind us, they are moving forward while we are taking steps back. By the way, try to catch the editing error around the 4:00 mark. For those of us who follow and actually listen to Jim Rogers, the message of letting the incompetent people fail is nothing new but people , especially on Wall St., don’t get the message. I told a couple of close friends of mine that government bailouts will not solve the problem but will only prolong the problem, at the time they said the typical “The gov’t did what it had to do”, a few months have passed and they are scratching their heads as to where all the money has gone.

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Jim Rogers On Bloomberg October 28, 2009

Admin — Fri, 30 Oct 2009 04:39:43 +0000

These are the type of Jim Rogers videos I like: long, answering viewers questions and most importantly, you feel like you came away with something new. Anyway, below is the half hour interview with Bloomberg. One interesting thing to note is Jim Rogers take on the $USD. One doesn’t have to watch Bloomberg or CNBC for too before some phony analysts goes on and starts rambling about the falling dollar. In other words, while the $USD might be falling, there could easily be a short squeeze considering how many people are in the trade. In Wall Street, they call this a crowded trade. Personally, I’m looking at potentially shorting long term U.S> bonds, what ya’ll think?

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Jim Rogers Talks Gold

Admin — Mon, 26 Oct 2009 02:42:10 +0000

With gold making new highs, Jim Rogers seems to get more questions about Gold. What’s a bit more surprising to me is Jim’s comments that Gold is not in a bubble and it still has room to go higher. In typical Jim Rogers fashion, he recommends buying the commodity and not the stock as studies have shown commodity stocks sometimes lag the commodity.

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Long Sugar, But Getting Short Bonds

Admin — Wed, 21 Oct 2009 14:39:25 +0000

Source: Index Universe: Jim Rogers Interview: Long Sugar, But Getting Short Bonds

No surprise to those who have been following Jim Rogers for the past year or so. Jim Rogers continues to be bullish on Sugar despite making multi-year highs but not all time highs. Jim Rogers has also stated recently that for the first time in a long time he has no shorts, this could be changing shortly.

IndexUniverse.com (IU.com): How do you think the specter of increased regulation will affect futures-based index commodities ETFs?

Jim Rogers (Rogers): First of all, there’s no question: It’s not just a specter—they seem to have it in their heads that they’ve got to do something. It’s interesting because index investing doesn’t really have much effect on the price. Index investors don’t take delivery of commodities—they turn around and sell them again. Index investors in stocks, now they do have influence on the market, because they take stocks off the market. Anybody who invests in the S&P 500 funds, they buy stocks and take them off the market. If anybody manipulates the market, it’s the stock index investors. Having said that [the regulators] look like they’re going to do something.

It is having a temporary effect on the market, but eventually it’s going to drive the markets offshore. America has had a near-monopoly on commodity trading for 100 years, and they’re just giving it to the rest of the world. I live in Asia, and I travel a lot. [They] can’t believe what they’re seeing because America’s about to say, “Here. Take the business.”

Many countries have made mistakes like this. If it happens, there’s going to be a temporary blip in the market. It will make the fundamentals of commodities better because as long as prices are down, there’s less incentive for people to produce more. But eventually you’re going to see [business move to other] markets, whether it’s in Japan, Singapore or India. They’re all sitting there dumbfounded that this is happening.

If you’ll notice, the English have said “well, we’re not going to do this.” Because they love the fact that all of a sudden they may get a lot of business that will be forced out of the U.S. and into other markets. It’s staggering.

But then I’ve often been staggered by politicians throughout my life, and if you read back in history, you sometimes say to yourself, “How can anyone be so dumb?”

IU.com: Has the persistent contango in certain commodities counteracted the argument for index-based commodities investment?

Rogers: I do notice the press has suddenly learned how to spell “contango,” and even “commodities.”

I’ve seen it come and go. Certainly when you deal in a commodity that is in contango, it makes it more difficult. However, if a commodity is in contango and the basic price is going through the roof, you’re still going to make a lot of money. But I’ve seen contango come and go. From my point of view, as a passive investor, I really don’t pay attention because there’s usually something in backwardation and something else in contango, and they come and go over time. According to studies, they haven’t had that much difference.

But if you’re really smart and you can invest away from contango or can invest with contango and know how to do it, you’ll make a lot more money. And there are people who think they are really smart and are trying to do that right now. I’m not smart enough to do it, so I just continue to invest in an indexed way with all commodities

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Jim Rogers Bullish On Commodities, Not Stocks- Time

Admin — Wed, 14 Oct 2009 00:57:54 +0000

Jim Rogers’ daughters may not have been born with silver spoons in their mouths, but they’ve got them now. Not silver spoons, exactly, but silver bullion. “My little girls don’t own stocks — they own commodities,” he says, “and that’s why they’ll be able to take care of me in retirement.” Rogers, a former hedge-fund manager, author and B-school professor and now bicontinental showman (he lives in Singapore and New York), was slamming stocks and praising precious metals in front of an eager audience of investors who had packed a basement auditorium in midtown Manhattan to hear their favorite teacher.

Rogers is fairly famous among the investing crowd for being a superbull on commodities. His investment convictions spring from an unflappable confidence in his ability to spot emerging secular trends. He looks at the same headlines we all do — that the U.S. government is running gargantuan deficits, that China’s huge account surpluses are being smartly invested, that the world economy is experiencing tectonic shifts. But Rogers sees each bit of news as a piece of a bigger puzzle. When he finally can divine what the puzzle says, he bets heavily, writes books about it and gathers a crowd around him. No one knows how heavily he bets, because Rogers is a private investor, but it’s safe to assume that it’s more than you or I have in our brokerage accounts.

Consider what he did the last time he saw one of these trends coming: in the early ’90s, he traveled the world on his motorcycle, then wrote a book, Investment Biker, that helped popularize emerging markets at the beginning of their long bull run. (See pictures of the top 10 scared stock traders.)

Rogers sees three big secular trends now, and he’s acting on all of them. First, America’s role as the dominant economic power is declining, so why own American stocks? (He doesn’t.) Second, China is emerging, and even though it may have crises from time to time, it is a good place to invest. (He does.) Third — and this is the biggie — emerging nations including China are greatly increasing the future demand for commodities such as oil. (He’s in with both feet.)

“Thirty years ago, 3 billion people were not even participating in the world economy, and now they are trying to live like we do,” he notes. That emerging megaforce, says Rogers, will put a supertight squeeze on commodity prices across the board, from beef to bullion. For the unconvinced, he pulls out a chart showing the average daily per capita consumption of oil in the U.S. at 0.677 bbl., vs. India’s infinitely smaller consumption (0.021 bbl.) and China’s (0.049 bbl.). “Even if the Chinese and Indians just start consuming as much electricity as Koreans now do, the price of oil will take off,” he says. (See the best business deals of 2008.)

Rogers isn’t just an investor; he’s an impassioned salesman, part Jimmy Swaggart, part Howard Ruff. There are several commodity exchange-traded funds (ETFs) now trading under the Rogers name, and his very appearance last Thursday, Oct. 8, was to help hawk two new precious-metals ETFs — one for gold and one for silver — being offered by ETF Securities USA, which hired Rogers to speak.

Maybe it’s the bow tie, his Alabama drawl or his professorial demeanor, but when Jim Rogers speaks, even those who disagree quietly rethink their positions. People who challenge him are playfully mocked. Responding to one young business type in the crowd who questioned his thesis, Rogers advised him to “head down to Texas A&M and offer to trade in your M.B.A. for one of their agricultural degrees.” Become a farmer, he advised the guy: “You’ll make out better than you will with your M.B.A.” The man tried to respond but was drowned out by laughter.

Own government bonds? Don’t tell Jim. “How could anybody in their right mind lend money to the U.S. government at 4% for 30 years?” He draws out the enunciation of “30 years” as if he can’t even believe he’s saying it, can’t believe that anyone could be that stupid.

Rogers believes some eternal truths: that even God-fearing politicians lie about their intentions, and that governments will steal from you. “Think it won’t happen here?” he asks. “Just look what they did to GM bondholders.”

He also fervently believes in investment cycles as a natural outcome of human behavior. The commodities boom is one such cycle, he says, and it won’t last forever. “These commodity bull markets tend to last 18 to 20 years. The current one started 11 years ago,” he says. No one knows when a cycle will end, Rogers says, but it’s clear from his ebullient tone that he believes the best part of the ride is still ahead. That especially holds true for certain commodities that have not yet had their big run. “I like gold [partly as an inflation hedge], but I’m even more interested in silver, which is still 70% below its all-time high.”

Silver. Hmmm. Hardly has that thought sunk in before I’m back to watching Jim prance across the stage, dipping into geopolitics — “whenever in history an established power is being surpassed by a rising power, they clash,” he said, referring to a potential U.S.-China faceoff — and giving the audience a peek at what may be his only anxiety, water. Or rather, China’s inadequate supply of it. “If they run out of water, all bets are off — it’s the one thing you can’t do without,” he says. Boy, this guy is smart.

But if he’s so good at investing, why is he out shilling for someone else’s funds?

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Agriculture Will Reap Big Profits: Jim Rogers

Admin — Thu, 08 Oct 2009 04:39:43 +0000

Jim Rogers took it to the floor of the NYSE on Wednesday October 07, 2009 to talk about commodities and gold. Despite the recent run up in commodity prices, Jim Rogers still believes we have room to go and commodities will outperform. I personally found the interview to be of great value and not being inside the studio gave the interview a different vibe.

“The fundamentals get better and better for agriculture. We have a shortage of farmers developing, much less of everything else,” Rogers said in a live interview. “Demand goes up, inventories go down, it’s the perfect storm.”

“Gold is going to go much higher over the next decade or so,” he said. “I’m not selling any gold, I wouldn’t buy it, I don’t like to buy anything at an all time high, but don’t sell your gold, it’s going to be much higher in ten years.”

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Jim Rogers On Fox Business Channel October 06,2009

Admin — Wed, 07 Oct 2009 05:13:36 +0000

Great commentary by Jim Rogers on king dollar the greenback and the Fed. Maybe its the punch in the green room, but every time Jim Rogers appears on Fox Business Channel, he comes with a bit more energy. Check out the video below the new one and you will see what I mean.

Jim Rogers On Fox Business Channel

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Jim Rogers On CNBC

Admin — Fri, 02 Oct 2009 14:01:51 +0000

On the 60th anniversary of the founding of the PRC, Jim Rogers appeared on CNBC to talk about China’s currency, its role as a creditor nation, and sectors in China that will prosper in the future. Jim also mentions that the U.S is vulnerable to hyperinflation and in disagreement with government reports, true inflation is 6-7%.

“China saved up huge reserves for a rainy day, now it’s raining and they’re spending those reserves,” Rogers said.

“You contrast that with the UK or the US for instance which has no reserves, has nothing but huge debts and they’re borrowing, or printing, or taxing to spend their money… I’d rather be in the East than in the West.”

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