Is this the end of the commodity bull market?
“This is making the fundamentals better for commodities…farmers cannot even get loans for fertilizer any more, inventories for agricultural products are the lowest they’ve been for fifty years. Coming out of this, the secular supply is going to be even less.”
“In 1987 the stock market collapsed. Was that the end of the bull market? In retrospect, it was not. I would suggest that this period of forced liquidation is not the end of the bull market in commodities…. in fact, the fundamentals of commodities are improving.”
Does Jim believe in “Peak Oil” (Oil production has peaked)….
“I’m not a geologist, but I do know that nobody’s discovered a major ‘elephant’ oil field in over forty years. There may be huge amounts of oil out there, but if so, we don’t know where it is, and we’d better find it fast and it’d better be in accessible areas”
Buy the stock or underlying asset….?
“In the 1980s, oil went up ten times but a lot of oil stocks did next to nothing”
“If you’re a good stock picker, of course you’re going to make more money in the stock…but most people are not good stock pickers. All the studies show that indexing outperforms 80 per cent of fund managers year after year”
Which commodities is Jim buying? All of em…
“because they’ve fallen so much”
Hold off on Gold…..
“For thousands of years, alchemists have tried to figure out how to turn lead into gold, and I point out that for the past 30 years, you’d have been better off turning gold into lead!”
“I’ve been making speeches to gold bugs for years and they always hate me, because I tell ‘em that gold’s just a function of supply and demand, and they think it’s all holy and mystical”
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November 19th, 2008 at 11:31 pm
Really enjoy your site. Put you on my RSS feeder.
Jim is certainly getting around these days. Very helpful to hear his ideas during this tumultuous time.
Kevin
http://www.bullinachinamarket.com